Health News Coronavirus outbreak edges closer to pandemic – msnNOW By admin Posted on February 22, 2020 37 min read 0 0 95 Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Google+ Share on Reddit Share on Pinterest Share on Linkedin Share on Tumblr In South Korea, coronavirus cases quadrupled over two days, as 144 people linked to a religious sect tested positive. In Singapore, clusters of infection have been traced to two churches, a hotel business meeting, a health products shop and a construction site. In Iran, an outbreak has seeded new cases in Lebanon and Canada — a worrisome sign the disease could be spreading more widely than realized. © Kim Hyun-Tae/AP People suspected of being infected with the new coronavirus talk with health workers in Daegu, South Korea, which reported 100 new cases Friday. (Kim Hyun-tae/Yonhap via AP) There are outbreaks. There are epidemics. And there are pandemics, where epidemics become rampant in multiple countries and continents simultaneously. The novel coronavirus that causes the disease named covid-19 appears to be on the verge of that third, globe-shaking stage. Amid an alarming surge in cases with no clear link to China, infectious disease experts believe the flulike illness may soon be impossible to contain. The World Health Organization has not declared covid-19 a pandemic and the most devastating effects, including more than 2,200 deaths, are still in China. But the language coming from the organization’s Geneva headquarters has turned more ominous in recent days as the challenge of containment grows more daunting. Subscribe to the Post Most newsletter: Today’s most popular stories on The Washington Post “The window of opportunity is still there, but the window of opportunity is narrowing,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Friday. “We need to act quickly before it closes completely.” At the beginning of any disease outbreak, public health experts painstakingly trace the contacts of every person who becomes sick. The experts build a family tree of possible illness, with branches that include anyone who might have shaken hands with, or been sneezed on by an infected person. But with confirmed infections approaching 80,000 people, contact tracing on a case-by-case basis could soon be impractical. If the coronavirus becomes a true pandemic, a large proportion of the human population — a third, a half, two-thirds even — could become infected, although that doesn’t necessarily mean they will get sick. The word ‘pandemic’ invokes fear, but it describes how widespread an outbreak may be, not its deadliness. “If we went across the whole world and had a magic ball and were able to detect everyone who’s positive, we’d see it in lots of countries,” said Michael Mina, an infectious disease specialist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “It’s never clear until it’s happening. Experts suspect the virus is spreading stealthily. “I think we should assume that this virus is very soon going to be spreading in communities here, if it isn’t already, and despite aggressive actions, we should be putting more efforts to mitigate impacts,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist and senior scholar the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “That means protecting people who are most likely to develop severe illness and die.” The virus would be easier to contain if people who are contagious were obviously so, as was the case with SARS, which started an outbreak that burned itself out in 2003. But the new virus appears to spread among people who in some cases are not noticeably sick. In fact, most cases of covid-19 have been mild. Taxi drivers and people at business meetings have spread the illness, and among the more than 600 passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship who have tested positive, about half had no obvious symptoms. A new study from an international team of researchers, posted on a medical preprint site Monday, estimates that two-thirds of the coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, before the travel restrictions imposed Jan. 23 were transmitted by people whowere not documented as infected. A report in the New England Journal of Medicine this week suggested the disease reaches peak infectiousness shortly after people start to feel sick, spreading like the flu. A study published in JAMA on Friday chronicled the case of a 20-year-old Wuhan woman, who infected five relatives, even though she never showed signs of illness. “What we find is that this virus is going to be very difficult to contain,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease researcher at Columbia University and co-author of the study posted Monday. “Personally, I don’t think we can do it.” Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40 to 70 percent of the human population could potentially be infected by the virus if it becomes pandemic. Not all of those people would get sick, he noted. The estimated death rate from covid-19 — roughly two out of 100 confirmed infections — may also drop over time as researchers get a better understanding of how widely the virus has spread. The novel coronavirus may be particularly suited for stealth community transmission since its symptoms can be indistinguishable from those of a cold or flu, and testing capabilities are still being ramped up. Experts estimate it takes about a week for the number of people infected in a given community to double. Based on that, it would likely take several weeks for a new infection cluster to be picked up by a local health department, said Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. By mid-March, he estimated, officials should know if there is community transmission and a true pandemic. The virus has already infected people in every province in China, and is now spreading in communities in Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Japan, according to Nancy Messonnier, a top Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official. “I want to be clear that we are not seeing community spread here in the United States yet,” she said on Friday. “But it’s very possible, even likely, that may eventually happen.” A Chinese guard wears a protective mask and suit as he waits to check temperatures and register people entering a building in a commercial area on Feb. 21, in Beijing, China. Medical staff checking passengers arriving from Iran in the airport in Najaf, Iraq, on Feb. 21. A woman wearing a protective facemask rides her bicycle along a street in Shanghai, on Feb. 21. People wearing protective facemasks walk along a street in Shanghai, on Feb. 21. People wearing protective masks wait near the entrance of the Rafik Hariri University Hospital in the southern outskirts of the Lebanese capital Beirut, on Feb. 21. A bus with 34 French citizens repatriated from Wuhan arrives at the “Normandy Garden” resort on Feb. 21, in Branville, France, to be quarantined as part of a repatriation plan from the coronavirus hot zone. People wear masks after deaths and new confirmed cases revealed from the coronavirus in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 21. People wearing masks to protect from coronavirus walk along the street on Feb. 21, in Seoul, South Korea. Disinfection workers wear protective gears and get ready to disinfect against the coronavirus (COVID-19) at the subway station on Feb. 21 in Seoul, South Korea. South Korea reported 52 new cases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) bringing the total number of infections in the nation to 156, with the potentially fatal illness spreading fast across the country. South Korean health officials spray disinfectant in the southeastern city of Daegu on Feb. 21. A man wearing a protective face-mask amid fears about the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus attend Friday prayer on Feb. 21 in Singapore. A bus with slogans written in Chinese Go, we go back to home transfers passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, in quarantine due to fears of new COVID-19 coronavirus, at Daikoku pier cruise terminal in Yokohama on Feb. 21. Passengers wearing protective masks, amid the new coronavirus outbreak, disembark from a plane upon their arrival at Najaf airport, Iraq, on Feb 20. Shanghai Ballet dancers wearing masks practice in a dance studio in Shanghai, China, as the country is hit by an outbreak of the novel coronavirus, on Feb. 20. Demonstrators set fire and erect a barricade as they protest the arrival of a plane carrying evacuees from coronavirus-hit China’s Hubei province in the village of Novi Sanzhary in Poltava region, Ukraine, on Feb. 20. Local residents blocked the road leading to a sanatorium where the evacuees are due to be held in quarantine for at least two weeks. Masked passengers look out from the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked at Yokohama Port, Tokyo, Japan, on Feb. 20. Medical team members prepare to board the flight to Wuhan of Hubei Province at Changshui International Airport in Kunming, in China’s Yunnan Province, on Feb. 20. The 7th batch of 176 medical personnel from Yunnan to Hubei departed on Thursday to help the battle against the novel coronavirus. Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers pose during an emergency meeting with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the coronavirus outbreak in Vientiane, Laos, on Feb. 20. A man holds a Ukrainian state flag during a protest against the arrival of a plane carrying evacuees from China’s Hubei province hit by an outbreak of the novel coronavirus in the village of Novi Sanzhary in Poltava region, Ukraine, on Feb. 20. A Chinese tourist (front right), who was tested positive for the COVID-19 coronavirus and was isolated for treatment, receives a kiss from Sri Lankan Health Minister Pavithra Wanniarachchi and medical staff after she was discharged from the hospital near Colombo on Feb. 19. The 43-year-old woman, the first and only COVID-19 patient in Sri Lanka, was admitted to the hospital on January 25 and tested positive for COVID-19 two days later. A bus carrying the passengers from the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship leaves a port in Yokohama, Japan, on Feb. 19. Passengers tested negative for COVID-19 started disembarking on Wednesday. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrives at Wattay Airport for the Special ASEAN-China Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Vientiane, Laos, on Feb. 19. A passenger (R) leaves on foot after dismembarking the Diamond Princess cruise ship (background) in quarantine due to fears of the new COVID-19 coronavirus, at the Daikoku Pier Cruise Terminal in Yokohama on Feb. 19. A computer image created by Nexu Science Communication together with Trinity College in Dublin, shows a model structurally representative of a betacoronavirus which is the type of virus linked to COVID-19, better known as the coronavirus linked to the Wuhan outbreak, on Feb. 18. The building housing the biocontainment unit at Nebraska Medical Center is seen in this photo on Feb. 18 in Omaha, Nebraska. The center is treating patients potentially exposed to a viral outbreak of the COVID-19 virus. A Chinese man wears a protective mask as he sits near closed shops in a commercial street on Feb. 18, in Beijing, China. Apple said Monday that it did not expect to meet its quarterly revenue targets due to the coronavirus outbreak in China. In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, patients infected with the coronavirus take rest at a temporary hospital converted from Wuhan Sports Center in Wuhan in central China’s Hubei Province, on Feb. 17. Workers go about their duties at a section of the Leishenshan Hospital, the newly-built makeshift hospital for novel coronavirus patients, in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei province on Feb. 18. The first group of patients infected with the COVID-19 coronavirus was discharged from Leishenshan Hospital on Feb. 18, according to local media. A man holding his mobile phone walks past a poster by Italian urban artist Salvatore Benintende depecting Leonardo da Vinci’s Mona Lisa wearing a protective facemask and holding a mobile phone reading “Mobile World Virus” in a street of Barcelona on Feb. 18, a week after the World Mobile Congress was cancelled due to fears stemming from the coronavirus that sparked an exodus of industry heavyweights. Buses believed to carry the passengers of the cruise ship Diamond Princess, where dozens were tested positive for coronavirus, leave at Daikoku Pier Cruise Terminal in Yokohama, south of Tokyo, Japan, on Feb. 18. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (2nd L) and Health Minister Katsunobu Kato (L) attend a meeting of the Coronavirus (COVID-19 ) infectious disease control headquarters at the prime minister’s office in Tokyo on Feb. 14. Japan on February 14 began allowing elderly passengers who test negative for the virus to leave a quarantined cruise ship and finish their isolation in government-designated lodging. Students gesture with heart-shaped signs during an activity showing support for China’s fight against the novel Coronavirus at a school on Feb. 14 in Ayutthaya province, Thailand. Passengers react after they disembarked from the MS Westerdam, back, at the port of Sihanoukville, Cambodia, on Feb. 14. Hundreds of cruise ship passengers long stranded at sea by virus fears cheered as they finally disembarked Friday and were welcomed to Cambodia. China on Friday reported another sharp rise in the number of people infected with a Coronavirus (COVID-19), as the death toll neared 1,400. Passengers on board the Westerdam cruise ship look on in Sihanoukville on Feb. 14, where the liner on February 13 docked after being refused entry at other Asian ports due to fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Cambodia’s strongman premier Hun Sen welcomed on February 14 the passengers of a US cruise ship blocked from several Asian ports over fears of a deadly new virus. A man wears a gas mask as he holds a bouquet of flowers, following the outbreak of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Valentine’s Day in Hong Kong on Feb. 14. This photo taken on Feb. 13 shows a train attendant gesturing to medical staff leaving for Wuhan in Nanchang, China’s central Jiangxi province. The death toll from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic neared 1,400 on Feb. 14, as the United States complained of a “lack of transparency” from Beijing over its handling of a crisis that has fueled global panic. Jay Butler, Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases addresses the media about response to the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19 ) as Senior Adviser Ed Rouse looks on, at the Emergency Operations Center inside The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), on Feb. 13 in Atlanta, United States. In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping, centre, wearing a protective face mask waves as he inspects the novel coronavirus pneumonia prevention and control work at a neighbourhoods in Beijing, on Feb. 10. A woman wears a plastic water bottle with a cutout to cover her face, as a preventative measure following a virus outbreak which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, while walking on a footbridge in Hong Kong on Jan. 31. A Guardia di Finanza boat patrol around the Costa Smeralda cruise ship docked in the Civitavecchia port 70km north of Rome on Jan. 30. More than 6,000 tourists were under lockdown aboard the cruise ship after two Chinese passengers were isolated over fears they could be carrying the coronavirus. The ultrastructural morphology exhibited by the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which was identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China, is seen in an illustration released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia, on Jan. 29. Paramilitary officers wearing face masks stand guard at the Tiananmen Gate, as the country is hit by an outbreak of the new coronavirus, in Beijing, China on Jan. 27. Airport personnel monitor a thermal scanner as passengers arrive at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Pasay, Philippines, on Jan. 23. Director-General of World Health Organization (WHO) Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus takes part to a news conference after a meeting of the International Health Regulations (IHR) Emergency Committee for Pneumonia due to the Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV in Geneva, Switzerland, on Jan. 22. Travelers from China’s Wuhan and other cities go through body temperature scanners at Narita international airport in Narita, near Tokyo, on Jan. 23. Li Bin, center, deputy director of China’s National Health Commission, waits as journalists raise their hands to ask questions during a press conference about a new type of coronavirus spreading in China at the State Council Information Office in Beijing, on Jan. 22. The Wuhan Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, where a number of people related to the market fell ill with a virus, sits closed in Wuhan, China, on Jan. 21. Medical staff transfer patients to Jinyintan hospital where patients infected with a new strain of Coronavirus identified as the cause of the Wuhan pneumonia outbreak are treated in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, on Jan. 20. Professor Yuen Kwok-yung, right, speaks next to Wong Ka-hing, the Controller of the Centre for Health Protection of the Department of Health during a press conference at the Health Department in Hong Kong, on Jan. 11. 49/49 SLIDES Slideshow by photo services So far, the U.S. has 44 cases, most of them among repatriated passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, on which the virus become widespread while the ship was under quarantine in Yokohama, Japan. “It is impossible to predict at this point if the current outbreak will progress to a true pandemic,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the U.S. coronavirus task force. “If a large number of countries are unsuccessful in preventing sustained multi-generation transmissions, then we could witness the next pandemic.” A pandemic is a line in the sand, and every expert has a slightly different definition for when an outbreak crosses it. Generally, it means that there are self-sustaining lines of infection in multiple countries and continents — where the family tree of possible illness begins to encompass the entire population. Some specialists remain optimistic that won’t happen, in part because the Chinese government has imposed extreme measures to keep people isolated in their homes. Although the cumulative number of cases keeps going up, the rate of increase has apparently slowed. Changes in how the Chinese are tracking cases has impeded efforts by outside experts to understand the numbers. “I don’t want to be complacent. I don’t want to say we’re out of the woods,” said Ian Lipkin, a Columbia University epidemiologist who traveled to China recently to assist with the epidemic response and who isolated himself for two weeks after returning. “But I think we’re not in as dire straits as we might be, and that’s because everyone is pulling together internationally.” The WHO may be hesitant to declare a pandemic, as the label comes with significant political and economic consequences. When WHO last declared a pandemic for the H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009, the decision was later criticized by some countries, who felt the decision incited unnecessary fear and overly aggressive responses. The declaration, for example, prompted many countries to spend large sums on vaccines, even though the H1N1 strain of influenza proved to be relatively mild. The lethality of the new coronavirus remains difficult to estimate. But across the planet, many health systems are already preparing for a pandemic emergency. That includes making plans for treating people who are suspected of having the disease, and for protecting health care workers. In China, the death of Li Wenliang, the doctor who was also a whistleblower about the new virus, underscored the risk to those on the front lines. More than 3,000 health care workers have been infected according to a report from Chinese public health authorities. A major Boston health care system set up emergency operations in late January — treating the threat like a fire in the building or the Boston Marathon bombing. At the University of Minnesota Medical Center, a “scrum” team was activated in early February to focus on the health system’s preparedness for possible patients. Public health experts are devising strategies on how to conserve N95 respirators, specialized masks that are in a limited supply amid surging demand. They’re even thinking about seemingly small details, like how to make sure patients don’t spark new infections when they use a touch screen to check in, or pump sanitizer onto their hands. “We have to be ready,” said Paul Biddinger, chief of the division of emergency preparedness for Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston. “Extrapolating from some of the numbers we’ve seen on the impact to the health care system in China, it means we’ll have to surge fast.” Min Joo Kim, Amanda Coletta contributed to this story. carolyn.johnson@washpost.com joel.achenbach@washpost.com lena.sun@washpost.com william.wan@washpost.com Let’s block ads! (Why?) Source link
Weight loss tips: How to combine intermittent fasting & keto to lose weight, as per this guy who lost 33 kg – GQ India
Drugmaker ramping up production of potential coronavirus vaccine in record time – CBS News Last Updated Aug 24, 2020 9:08 PM EDT Drugmaker AstraZeneca’s potential coronavirus vaccine is …